A brief overview of clarification and new learning to date. Scenario planning:
- is a metaphor of rich narrative designed to help you consider alternative / potential futures
- provides an opportunity to explore how your present strategic decisions can / could impact on the future
- Scenarios are not predictions of the future, but mental models to gain a better understanding for decision making. Scenarios help answer the question: What will we do now, if that future were to happen? In other words scenario planning provides an opportunity to 'scope.'
The key elements for scenario planning are creative thinking and the use of qualitative subjective information. I would add open-mindedness, as I believe that you would have to be open to truly engage in the scoping aspect of scenario planning.
This slideshare presentation provides a brief overview of scenario planning and outlines a workshop process